The following is a news release from the Federal Reseve Bank of Dallas:
Texas added 26,500 jobs in December, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released [Friday] by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 19,100 jobs in November. In 2018, jobs increased by 2.4 percent after rising 2.1 percent in 2017.
Incorporating December job growth of 2.5 percent and a decline in the Texas Leading Index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 1.1 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent. Based on the forecast, 137,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.8 million.
The forecast is within the range of the Bank’s estimate of 0.9 and 1.9 percent growth which was announced at the annual Texas Economic Outlook event in San Antonio on Jan. 15.
“As was discussed on Tuesday, Texas is beginning the year with increased uncertainty due to the fourth-quarter decline in oil prices, trade uncertainty and volatility in financial markets,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Economic conditions will likely differ across the state this year as labor constraints limit growth along I-35 corridor and low oil prices slow growth in oil-producing regions.”
Unemployment rates rose in all of the nine major Texas metro areas in December, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
(News release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
