The Republican Presidential races hit a crossroads Tuesday and the Indiana Primary is a make or break moment for Ted Cruz.
The state has 57 Republican delegates up for grabs, and the winner takes most.
“If Trump wins by five points or more I think you’re going to see a lot of pressure on Cruz to drop out,” said GOP consultant, Matt Mackowiak.
The U.S. Senator from Texas, Cruz said he plans to stay in the race as long as there is still a viable path to the GOP nomination.
“Cruz wants to continue this,” Mackowiak said Cruz is playing for overtime. “He’s taken a shot from half court to try to get to overtime and he may come up a little short, we’ll see.”
It’s no longer mathematically possible for Cruz to become the GOP nominee during the primary season.
According to CNN estimates, Cruz has 572 delegates, 26 of those are unbound which means those delegates can support any candidate they wish at the Republican National Convention.
CNN reports Donald Trump has 1002 delegates, 45 of which are unbound. Ohio Governor John Kasich is in a distant third with 156 delegates, 2 of those are unbound. Kasich does not have a chance at winning the nomination during the primary season either. Trump is the only candidate who can take the nomination without going to an open contest.
The magic number is 1,237—that’s how many delegates are needed to win the nomination outright.
If Trump doesn’t get 1,237 delegates then the GOP nominee will be determined by the duly elected delegates in an open or contested contest at the Republican National Convention in July.
Cruz’s only hope to the nomination is to stop Trump short of 1,237 delegates and take the race to an open contest.
According to Machowiak, if Trump wins in Indiana, “His path to 1,237 is clear and he can get there any number of ways.”
If Cruz unexpectedly wins Indiana, Machowiak said, “In a way I think we almost have a brand new race.”
Cruz has focused all of his efforts on Indiana after teaming up with rival John Kasich.
“He struck this unusual bargain with Kasich. He announced his vice presidential running mate,” Machowiak said. He also said a loss in Indiana would be nothing short of embarrassment for Cruz.
Cruz has spent the last week in Indiana, but the polls in the Hoosier state opened the first week of April for early voting. Machowiak said it’s possible Trump banked enough support in the early vote to win the state.
“I think Cruz is catching up,” Machowiak said. “The question to me becomes if Cruz narrows this up and loses only by a couple points, really catches up—is that enough to keep going?”
