LUBBOCK, Texas — A report by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin released April 3 shows various COVID-19 outbreak scenarios in 22 different Texas metropolitan areas, including Lubbock.
The report was made to support planning by cities in Texas and projects the number of cases, hospitalizations, cumulative deaths and more under four different social distancing scenarios.
The researchers said these numbers are not forecasts and only serve as plausible scenarios to gauge the impacts of social distancing in Texas cities.
The simulations ran from April 1 to mid-August 2020.
The scenarios were: no social distancing, close schools with no additional social distancing, and close schools with 50, 75 and 90 percent reductions in non-household contact.
Schools were ordered to be closed statewide by Governor Greg Abbott until May 4 on March 31.
According to the report, if Lubbock were to only close schools and not practice social distancing of any kind, the city would see a peak of just under 60,000 new cases in one week of mid-May (the number would then fall just as sharply as it rose).
However, if 75 percent social distancing is followed, the report projects Lubbock would not see a peak until the end of July. The number of weekly confirmed cases in that scenario would peak at around 20,000.
The report also projects the number of cumulative deaths Lubbock might see in the various scenarios.
If Lubbock only closed schools, the city could see 1,000 COVID-19-related deaths by the end of August, according to the report.
The report projects that a 75 percent reduction in non-household contact in Lubbock would reduce that to under 500 deaths.
