June 1st is the official start to hurricane season and this year has started out quite active with our third named storm already churning over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, but what does this early start to the season indicate as far as what we should expect for the rest of this year?
Jody James, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist of the National Weather Service office in Lubbock explains, “all the ingredients are kind of there this year as far as we can tell for an above average season. There’s some warm waters over the Atlantic, the trade winds are pretty light, wind shear is fairly weak, that starts to rip off the tops of thunderstorms as they develop and sometimes they can develop into hurricanes. We have an active African monsoon, and then no El Nino either. El Nino is usually considered destructive in a broad sense to the hurricane season. So we don’t have anything destructive, we’ve got some positive aspects, I guess, so we’re expecting at least an average, and a 60% chance at an above average season in the Atlantic basin.”
But Lubbock is situated in the far Northwestern portions of the state, so how does an above average season influence us here at home?
“I think Alex from a few years ago, brought about 15 inches of rain to Lynn County and at least 8 inches in Lubbock County. That was a system that came in from the Atlantic. Usually the winds have pretty much died down, but especially if we get some kind of tropical remnant that’s interacting with a front, for example, we can see that rain focused over the area for several days, and that’s when we can start to run into problems,” Jody says.
Also remember that if you plan on heading out to the beaches like many West Texans do, there are some things you will want to look out for this Summer.
Jody explains, “you want to learn about hurricanes and brush up on what can happen. Definitely want to pay attention to weather forecasts at the coast and follow instructions if those are issued from emergency management officials. And then the last thing is to be ready to evacuate if needed. If you are traveling to the coast and you don’t have property down there, you don’t share the same concerns as the people who are afraid to abandon their property. You can maybe leave and cut your trip short.”
