The duel over delegates continued Tuesday as the Republican and Democratic Presidential hopefuls wait for the polls to close on yet another primary day.
Between the three remaining Republican candidates, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas might have the most at stake.
In total, there are 98 Republican delegates up for grabs on what’s being called ‘Western Tuesday.’ A winner-take-all state, Arizona, hold 58 delegates to Utah’s 40.
“The Cruz campaign needs a strong showing in Utah,” said Matthew Brownfield. A political consultant,
A political consultant, Brown is a partner at Murphy Nasica & Associates.
The Austin-based firm works on statewide and national political campaigns to help Republican candidates get into office. If Cruz wants to win, Brownfield said he needs to pick up more delegates to show people he can win the GOP Primary outright.
Cruz is favored to win the Utah Caucuses, but he doesn’t just want to finish on top. In Utah, 50 percent is Cruz’s magic number. In Utah, if a candidate can get more than half of the Republican vote, then the candidate gets all 40 of the state’s delegates. Otherwise the delegates are split proportionally.
Brownfield said Cruz needs those delegates, which would also help back his argument that he can beat
Donald Trump.
“Then he can say, ‘Look, we are going to be in a long fight here, but I still have a chance to win this thing outright,’ before we get to the convention,” Brownfield said.
If Trump does better than expected in Utah, Brownfield said, “Then he can make a case that it’s time for people to rally around him.”
The party’s front runner, Trump, has a large lead in the early vote in Arizona where 58 delegates are on the table. But with a big win in Utah, Cruz could off-set Trump’s predicted victory, if he gets all 40 delegates there.
In order to be the GOP’s nominee, a candidate must lock down at least 1,237 Republican delegates.
If none of the candidates can reach that benchmark by the Republican National Convention in July, the race goes to an open contest. If that happens, the party’s duly elected delegates will decide the Republican nominee, not the millions of voters who cast their ballots in the primaries.
Between the three GOP candidates, Gov. John Kasich is the only one who wants to see the race go to an open contest. With only one state win thus far, Kasich does not have the numbers to clinch the nomination before the convention.
“Kasich is obviously making a play in Utah right now which I think surprised some folks,” Brownfield said.
Kasich’s surprise showing of support in Utah could split the vote to prevent Cruz from reaching the threshold to win all of the state’s delegates.
Cruz continues to discount Kasich. He insists the Republican Primary is a two-man race but no matter how many candidates are in the running, Trump is still in the lead.
“If Donald Trump is the nominee, it’s a disaster,” Cruz said.
Clearly, Cruz doesn’t want Trump to be the party’s nominee, but he also doesn’t want the winner to be determined in an open contest at the Republican National Convention.
The only way Cruz can avoid both of those scenarios is if he gets the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention in July.
